The relationship between Gabriel and his party is contradictory: As party Chairman, he had to serve a long time as a scapegoat for bad poll numbers. Now that the party is crashed, he is not a few suddenly, as a bringer of salvation. With the instinct of politicians Gabriel, you might have perhaps once more a Chance, a candidate for Chancellor, you would have to not be honest way better to only top candidates call in, hope its Fans.

Here, the now 59-Year-old candidacy for Chancellor is given two Times. First, he had Peer Steinbrück, the precedence, at the beginning of 2017 then his friend Martin Schulz. Gabriel gave the party chairmanship and was Minister of foreign Affairs. And that is because one of Gabriel’s commissioned analysis of Schulz ausrechnete a better chance in the General election.

After the crash to make a Comeback?

But it turned out differently: While Schulz crashed after an initial Hype, benefited gave Gabriel from the popularity boost that the Minister Foreign to a lot of. Nevertheless, the new party leadership was Andrea Nahles their most popular politician after the election, defeat, fall. Nahles and Vice-Olaf Scholz denied him a Cabinet post in the Grand coalition-new edition. Since then, the former economic and foreign Minister, only a simple member of the German Bundestag.

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Done with the topic of Gabriel for the party leadership has not. For weeks, the Ex-party chief is touring as a speaker across the country and in his lectures on political issues of the day, such as diesel driving ban or U.S. policy, the enthusiasm of the SPD-Basis, of the Nahles and Scholz can only dream of. More and more of the claim of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the party would have to include Gabriel. Maybe even as a candidate for Chancellor. But is that really realistic?

According to the party scientist Tilman Mayer of the University of Bonn, the SPD is not “still so far to endure Gabriel once again in a responsible Position”. But that could soon change. And there are three weighty reasons.

reason 1: party hangs in the survey of deep-fixed

All of the decisions that are being made in the SPD to values measured at the currently for the SPD alarming survey. Whether the left-turn of SPD with a billion-dollar social reform party, the election at the latest, in Europe on October 26. Of may show. Also for this election, the polls predicted in the last 15 percent, which would be a loss of 50 per cent. “If this is not prevented, it could be the pressure on Nahles and Schulz too big. This would benefit Gabriel, in any case,“ says Mayer.

reason 2: lack of charismatic leadership

Even if the party leadership asserted again and again, a staff debate is neither desired nor necessary: “the mere fact that the party is always more about Nahles’ party leadership is talking, says it all,” says Mayer. The disastrous poll numbers are indicating that it is an error of Nahles, and Scholz was the popular Ex-foreign Minister in the government work.

in Addition, Nahles would be only for the left part of the SPD, and Scholz applicable as ambitious, but a lack of charisma. “Gabriel embodies, however, the entire width of the party.” The base note of the take, that his taunts were a major pain the party’s Executive Committee. “But at the base he comes with. Gabriel definitely has a Chance to be in spite of his already failed Attempts but still the Chancellor candidate of the SPD. He clearly has the Chance to be the coming man,“ says Mayer.

reason 3: Gabriel has something that the citizens in vain, Merkel-awaited

Gabriel is said to have also a gift to miss a lot of voters only Nahles, and Scholz, but also of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will always in vain, had requested the Ex-Minister of foreign Affairs can talk Turkey. While Merkel happened to be sitting out problems and often controversial issues, as vaguely worded, in order not to give offence, is Gabriel quickly with clear words to the place and outdated even sometimes with his opinion change.

So, for example, be Flirting with a “Grexit” during the negotiation of an aid package with Greece, many Enjoyed to despair. The same was true of trailers for Gabriel’s dialogue with Pegida.

But times have changed. Merkel’s pragmatic style of politics that allowed the citizens to the refugee crisis, largely unchallenged, seems to have survived. The society has become more polarized, and many people want answers to their questions instead of phrases being fobbed off. Here, Gabriel could play to its Strengths in the electorate.

The SPD slumped further depressing 20.5 percent in the General election by up to five percent. The silent compromise of the course of the Comrades in the Grand coalition seems the voters arrive. And so this could be what Gabriel verprellte many SPDler in the past, now as an advantage: clear edge to show. “The party base seems to approve of a charismatic head, the things are not watered down, but clearly expresses, in the style of Helmut Schmidt,” concludes Mayer a for Gabriel flattering comparison.

The biggest danger to Gabriel as a candidate for Chancellor Gabriel himself is

Undeterred, touring the low thing now by Germany and advertises itself. “If the SPD did not perform better in the elections, and Gabriel manages to get out of Schröder’s more prominent supporters, he has a real Chance to be in the third attempt, Chancellor candidate,” Mayer sure.

The biggest danger to Gabriel is probably end up with Gabriel. Many Comrades have not forgave him for his derogatory Statement about Martin Schulz. As Schulz in spite of a contrary promise, after the election defeat had tried, Gabriel’s successor as foreign Minister in a Merkel-Cabinet of Ministers, quoted in Gabriel, his daughter, who had referred to Schulz as a “man with hair in the face”. The Mayer looks no different. “His Wording is and remains risky and could cost him also the third calls for a candidacy.”

In the FOCUS Online/Wochit Who can SPD save? Citizens have a clear preference between Nahles and Gabriel

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