To the end of the year, it is exciting again: Although the price of gold is not likely to make it, in the year 2018, the closing price of 2017 at 1302,6 points. However, the price of gold is quoted to the rise in the past few months at Six-month High. Thus, the development can be compared to the fall in the Dax and the S&P500 more than see. Investors should be. from the recent price jump in the S&P500 of five percent of the 26 December don’t be fooled. Such a rate-hopper, there are usually only in bear markets, as in October 2008, a few weeks after the Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. A bear market means a decline of at least 20 percent compared to the previous High.
Trump is launching an open attack on the independence of the Fed
as many experts acknowledge, in the mass media, that the bear market is likely to go in the S&P500 in the next year, the Index on descent should remain, the prospects for the gold price better than ever before. Therefore, the price increase of recent months is likely to be only the beginning of a sustainable upward trend. Gold price (Spot) 1.272,63 USD +5,55 (+0,44%) To OTC
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Responsible for US President Donald Trump and the US Central Bank mainly. According to a media report, Trump has been debated repeatedly over a sacking of Fed chief Jay Powell. This open attack Trumps the independence of the Fed has unsettled many investors, prompting you sold on Christmas eve, strong equities and the slump in the S&P500 has expanded. In turn, investors fled to the safe haven of Gold. While Trump has increases in the past few months, Powell and the Fed for their interest and the slump in the stock market repeatedly criticized, which is why trump’s attack is likely to actually not be surprising.
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Despite assertions to the contrary by Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin and Trumps economic adviser Kevin Hassett of the American President should therefore continue to be a way to Powell to get rid as soon as possible. This concern could cook with investors at any time, if Trump should criticize in Interviews or Tweets, Powell and his colleagues are once again in focus, especially if the decline in the S&P500 should continue. The slump in the US stock market had been buoyed in the past few months, the price of gold.
No solution in the trade war in sight
Trumps policy could continue to drive the gold price upward, especially since the US President is likely to Stoke trade war, which is why the expected downward trend in S&P500. Although a U.S. Delegation is flying in the week of 7. January to Beijing to the negotiations to find a solution to the trade dispute.
S&P 500 2.488,79 PTS. +21,09 (+0,85%) OTC
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To the price data, However, is likely to make it to the 1. March 2019 however, no agreement can be reached, especially as the US authorities have recently arrested a Chinese employee of a US Oil company, whom they accuse of theft of trade secrets. In addition, Trump should have to think about it, to adopt a regulation, the U.S. Telecom companies, the use of network technology, the Chinese provider Huawei, and ZTE forbid it. How to give it in the environment, a solution to the trade dispute?
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If you should be not occur, clouding the prospects for the Chinese and the world economy, which should keep selling pressure on the S&P500. The purchasing managers ‘ index for the global industry, the English research firm IHS, Markit released has fallen to a 23-month Low. In the economic environment, the risk is always greater that the global industry will slip into a recession, which would not only pollute the S&P500 and the Dax, but the global stock market is enormous. In the scenario, the gold price should rise sharply.
U.S. interest rate hikes weigh on the heavily indebted US economy
For a tailwind to the gold price, the US-based Bank. Contrary to the expectation of many investors Powell has announced for 2019, two interest rate increases. Here, investors had to pull over because of the fear of the Up of a possible U.S. recession, interest rate hikes priced in for 2019, virtually, the investors were assumed to be no increase.
Almost shocked by Powell’s statement to investors that the balance sheet reduction in the Central Bank, by means of the “Autopilot” will continue to run, the Fed wants to continue to sell for a total of $ 50 billion per month of government and mortgage bonds. So the Fed removes the financial cycle and thus the economy, 600 billion dollars per year are horrendous 2.9 percent of economic output and pushes the economy inevitably in the direction of recession.
U.S. bond market, stoking concern that the up-US-recession
resist the pull of This concern is reflected in the bond market clear. The interest rates on ten-year US bonds fell 2.75 per cent to the level of the end of January, even though the Fed has raised since then, the policy rates four Times by a total of 100 basis points (1.0 percentage points). In the environment, the interest rates on ten-year papers would have had to rise at least to a similar degree. That you have not done that, shows that the long-term prospects for the US economy have diminished.
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it is also worrying that the interest premium on ten-year bonds over two-year-old is down to only 21 basis points. So he is close to the lowest levels since August 2007. The bond market assesses the prospects for the US economy as one of the worst for more than eleven years. No wonder the S&P500 broke. By subtracting from the interest rates for ten-year bonds, those for two-year-old, to remove the inflation component and the growth component remains.
Many investors therefore look with concern on the interest rate structure curve. The investors expect that the curve could soon be inverted, so that the interest rates for ten-year bonds would be lower than for two-year-old. That would be a very accurate recession signal. Prior to the last nine recessions in the US, the yield curve was always the inverse. Since it is likely to be in the next few months flat, and then the inverse is likely to be the decline in the S&P500, and investors are likely to more money out of US stocks in the Gold switch.
Should emphasize Powell, despite this development, still that the Fed wanted to do with your interest rate increases, which should boost the gold price, because it is likely to increasingly price in an official u-turn in US monetary policy. For many investors, it is only a matter of time until the Fed put the rate hikes on ice, and rather, a new money-making round of QE4 should announce. With three securities purchase programmes, the Central Bank had kept over the years, the printing machine is up and Running. Possibly QE4 is coming in the autumn of 2019. In the environment, the price of gold should rise sharply, especially as the Dollar glut should turn because of the impending Dollar sharply down. So the only one would be eliminated against the wind of the past few months for the price of gold.
A lot of extra risks
Because of the risks to the stock market and the tailwind for the gold price, the out of Trump and the Fed could lose some of the investors, other factors, such as the Brexit, or the high level of debt in France and Italy. In this case, these factors speak in favour of keeping at least a small portion of its assets in Gold, because they are a burden on the prospects for the world economy and thus for the stock market.
The upward trend in the price of gold is likely to continue. The policy is speaking of Trump, however, the Fed does the Rest. Should there be a Crash in the S&P500 and, thus, the global stock market, while at the same time, the Dollar is likely to significantly turn down, is expected to rise in the price of gold.
In the FOCUS Online/Wochit Threat of recession: As the Germans your fortune Gold, Trump, the Fed, the US Central Bank trade war interest of dollars of debt, Italy, France Brexit China recession rescue