a Few – myself included – would welcome a young member of Parliament/n is about of the group of Euro-optimists as President. Some hope that the next Ministerial team made up of representatives of the new Pro-Western parties of Ukraine, including those from the Democratic Alliance, or so-called power of the people, is put together. Others are from the famous lead singer of the group “Okean Elsy” Svyatoslav Vakarchuk charmed by the seems to be of interest for policy.

Currently the likely winner of the election

is currently The most likely scenario for the presidential elections next spring, however, is that the former two-time Prime Minister and former two-time political prisoner Yulia Tymoshenko will be the next head of state of Ukraine. Also will increase the weight of your Fatherland party in the Supreme Council, the unicameral Parliament of Ukraine after the parliamentary elections in the autumn apparently.

Although there is the possibility that the current President, Petro Poroshenko, could benefit from a basic change of mood, until March, and his office maintains. Yes it could even come from a third-party candidate in the second round of the presidential election and the runoff election in April 2019 against Tymoshenko win.

But in a particularly in-depth survey carried out in October-November, 2018, in the approximately 10,000 Respondents were interviewed, Tymoshenko in almost the whole of the Ukraine more or less far forward. There appear to Poroshenko’s chances of victory in the face of a high rejection of his Person in the population is low. Also, with regard to the parliamentary elections in the following autumn, Tymoshenko’s party ahead of the All-Ukrainian Association “Batkiwschtschyna” (“Fatherland”) in the surveys so far, a clear.

About the expert

Dr. Andreas Umland, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic cooperation in Kiev and editor of the book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”, which appears at ibidem-Verlag, Stuttgart.

For the case that the former Prime Minister and her Team take in the next year, the office of the President and/or the government, is not entirely clear, what is exactly mean this. The West should adjust to this, however this is always likely expectant development. Should such a preparation include, among others, the inconsistencies in Tymoshenko’s behaviour in Parliament and in their public appearances, in a critical work out.

its possible to power should be seen as an opportunity for a political restart, improved relations with the West and a development thrust for the country. Certain aspects of the political career of Tymoshenko’s might serve as starting points to develop a forward-looking approach.

the Positive aspects of the political rise of Tymoshenko’s

For the first Tymoshenko will be, so she wins, the first elected President of the East Slavic area. This fact alone would be in the context of Christian Orthodox culture and neosowjet of patterns of behavior – both not exactly feminist – a remarkable achievement. Tymoshenko had already broken in 2005 as the first female Prime Minister of Ukraine is a political dam.

her ascent to the presidency would pose for the entire post-Soviet world is a big progress in terms of gender equality and women outside of the Ukraine to encourage a political career. A question on Tymoshenko in this context will be whether it is using in the case of an electoral victory, their new Power to raise the proportion of women in the highest government offices to the generally recommended minimum level of 30 percent and an even higher percentage.

Secondly, it has managed to Tymoshenko, with Batkiwschtschyna over the last twenty years of a relatively functional pan-national and Pro-Western party. The creation of this structure is in itself already a strengthening of the Ukrainian democracy, whatever one thinks about Tymoshenko. In contrast to other political organizations in Ukraine, has Batkiwschtschyna of institutionalized Regional and local chapters, which are more or less evenly distributed across the country.

The party for a number of years a group in the Parliament and in the European people’s party (EPP), the merger of Christian democratic parties of the EU, observer status. Batkiwschtschyna is not only because of the personality of Tymoshenko’s popular, but also because of their social and economic initiatives. The party resembles more of a real political party, as a “political” project, or a post-Soviet pseudo-party, of which there are many in the Ukraine since 1991.

Thirdly, while it is true that Tymoshenko, as the last President Yushchenko, Yanukovych and Poroshenko – the old guard is part of the shortly after the collapse of the USSR ascended politicians. However, it differs from these only by the fact that she is a woman. She was Minister under Leonid Kuchma, who was from 1994 to 2005 for a particularly long time President of the Ukraine. On the other hand, she was imprisoned, however, in 2001, also short of Kuchma. As Poroshenko 2011-2012 was a Minister under Yanukovych, was appointed Prime Minister from 2011 to 2014, again in prison.

These arrests are not necessarily a recommendation. It is not the less a note that it is seemingly carved from the same wood, like Kuchma, Yushchenko, Yanukovych and Poroshenko, none of whom was arrested during his political career. May the evidence of Tymoshenko’s took less exceptional misconduct on the part of Tymoshenko, as the fear of your opponents before their political effectiveness and determination.

Finally, organized Tymoshenko and her party in recent months, a number of large semi-public programme of conferences under the title “New course”, which allowed broad participation and substantive debates. Illustrated is the relative openness of these events by incidents in which unannounced speaker reported spontaneously to the word. On the Meeting more or less content were conducted full posts and interactive discussions, the sometimes half-baked approaches included a range of original, if. Were also involved activists and experts who do not belong to Batkiwschtschyna. In fact, Tymoshenko’s program conferences brought forth so many new ideas that you are overlooking in their entirety, even for policy experts.

views of a Tymoshenko presidency

is a guarantee for a good presidency, Tymoshenko’s. You have to wonder about where the huge money is coming, the Tymoshenko currently for your campaign spend, and what these financial infusions will mean a shadowy donors, where appropriate, for their policy as a head of state or head of government. Nevertheless, the above-mentioned positive aspects of Tymoshenko’s political biography, given the fact that you – will serve to win according to the current state of the polls – probably, as a starting point for a constructive discussion between her and the Ukrainian civil society as well as the Western player community.

Foreign diplomats and Ukrainian activists should be figuring out already strive today, to the extent that a future presidential administration or the government under Tymoshenko will be ready, the Ukrainian pursue socio-economic Transformation and European Integration. Will be Tymoshenko’s to help the Team reforms into a of oligarchs infiltrated Parliament, a corruption-riddled government, and a reformed bureaucracy to push through?

for A time, sensational action was Tymoshenko’s as a newly appointed Minister-President in 2005, the cancellation of the rigged privatisation and re-privatisation of Kryworishstal, the largest Ukrainian steel mill, which was the result of an open auction to ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih. This time measure might suggest that Tymoshenko thinks it might be the limitation of the influence of the oligarchs in the Ukraine is more serious than Poroshenko

Tymoshenko has been criticized because of their left-wing populist rhetoric, its unrealistic social policy plans and their unconstructive behaviour in Parliament. However, such an approach, as well as a blockade against the government in the case of the Western opposition parties is not uncommon. It is therefore likely that Tymoshenko and her Team will adjust their positions, policies and solutions considerably, as soon as you power the government and/or the President of erlangen – similar to Western parties typically follow according to the choice and Acquisition of Executive offices, about re-orienting. Given the particularly tight financial room to move, the every government of the Ukraine is facing and will see, is likely to be a future Tymoshenko administration more productive with the IMF, the EU and other international donors work together, as it is the current election rhetoric in the dazzling presidential candidate suggests.

for A more detailed English version of the contribution published on the blog page of the Foreign Policy Association, New York.

FOCUS Online/Wochit/Ruptly, With 300,000 soldiers and 36,000 tanks – Russia launches record-maneuver

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