President Barack Obama was in the year 2013, the American hegemony when he refused, military action against the Syrian poison gas attacks and later tried to close a nuclear deal with Iran. In contrast, Donald Trump has fired missiles to Syria and Iran threatened. But, while he fluctuates between threatening to destroy his enemies, and a complete withdrawal, will prevail the latter instinct. Sometimes, certain events, his advisers or his domestic policy for the Act to force him. But trump’s attitude is even more distant than his predecessor Obama. The to unpredictability, to inefficiency and to a lasting Chaos.
For the Yemen, Syria, and Libya could be part of the agreement, without achieving a permanent agreement to end the war. Trump’s “ultimate Deal” to create peace between Israel and the Palestinians, it will fail. If he can’t present a Plan. America’s sanctions against Iran will not be lifting the clerical Regime from the fishing. You will strengthen the hard-liners instead of the back. The jihadists will take advantage of every opportunity to regroup.
the danger of new wars will rule whether intended or not
this anarchist world of 2019 is constantly the danger of new wars will break out. Whether it is intended or not. The shooting down of a Russian Espionage aircraft by Syrian anti-aircraft missiles in September, which had actually to Israeli bombers targeted, was a warning of what can go wrong when so many world powers fight in a confined space of various wars. A danger is that Israel will attack Iran and its allies and a war, especially against the Lebanese-Shiite Hezbollah. Another scenario would be that Turkey might be forced to fight against Syrian troops (and their allies from Russia and Iran) if you try, the rebel-occupied enclave of Idlib recapture.
There will be political tensions in the Gulf region. The macabre murder of the exiled journalist Jamal Khashoggi, in October, has weakened the Saudi king Salman and his son, the crown Prince Muhammad. The hope was that the crown Prince would initiate social and economic reforms. This weakening could lead to the oppression becomes worse, the intrigue will intensify within the Palace, and that of the cold war in the country, with Qatar and Turkey will be even colder. Trumps Affection for his autocratic comrades is, ultimately, a perfect breeding ground for the instability. But he will be more concerned about its military contracts with Russia or China, and the fact that he is losing influence.
Russia, presents himself as the real power in the Region
And in fact, will stage Russia more and more as the indispensable power in the Middle East. Russia saved the Regime of Bashar al-Assad, by intervening in the Syria conflict. Yet, they were able to avoid it to fall into such a leaching the mud, as happened to America in Iraq. Russia has proved that it stands by its allies, no matter how repulsive they are. The country has refined its techniques of warfare and provides military equipment freely for sale.
Russia is the only country that a friendly relationship to all of the major players in the Region. Among other things, with countries such as Israel, Turkey and also Iran. The key to a solution to the conflict in Syria, lies not in American, but in Russian hands. Although Russia is the “Shia axis” has helped to a air force, Saudi Arabia together with you, in order to regulate the amount of Oil extracted, and to push the price of crude oil in the amount to annoy Trump.
China is Also pushing ahead
Israel, Saudi-Arabia and various Arab heads of government have received no Trump with open arms, though there was a threat, that you’re screwing this in the future, with the Democrats of America. But the Gulf States consider him to be a fickle friend. A fear that Trump with his statement, the Saudi king “may be fired without us, there may be no two weeks”. The dependence on Russia is, therefore, equanimity is a valuable hedge against America.
China dashes. The country has a naval base in Djibouti, and its warships have run out of ports in the Gulf. As the largest buyer of Oil from the Gulf region, China has a vital interest in ensuring that security prevails. But in China it is mainly so that it can conduct its economic business. The pesky problems about the policy and the security of the country is left to the Americans – or, if you do not do it, the Russians.
This article first appeared in the Economist, and was translated by Patrick Steinke from the English.
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